Methodology
BagTrace reads Robinhood Chain directly and looks for supply that hidden actors control but that never shows up as a normal holder. Every figure in a report links to the transaction it comes from. These are on-chain facts, not accusations. Not financial advice.
What we track
- Pons (V2) tokens launched on Robinhood Chain in the last 7 days.
- The radar: graduated Pons tokens with a market cap of at least $100K or at least 150 buys in the last hour. A token stays 48 hours; if it drops below both thresholds it shows as “cooling”.
- Any Pons token from the last 7 days can be analyzed by pasting its contract address.
The four detectors
Launch bundle
Wallets that bought from the bonding curve in the first 10 seconds after launch, grouped by who really ends each transaction holding the tokens, then followed for 30 minutes as they spread the tokens to more wallets. Wallets the creator exempted from the anti-snipe tax are marked. The share that counts is the most the group held at the same time, not what passed through it.
Creator vault (ERC-6909)
Tokens deposited within the first minute as ERC-6909 claims inside the Uniswap v4 PoolManager. Holder lists show them as the PoolManager's, not as anyone's bag. They are then sold in small drips.
Hidden v4 stash
Supply parked in an out-of-range Uniswap v4 position. It is withdrawn and sold in the same transaction through flash accounting, so no token transfer ever shows up.
Dev facade
The creator burns or passes on its own launch buy, so “dev holds 0%” looks safe. On its own this is only a note; tokens passed to other wallets count as hidden supply.
Buy routers (contracts that receive what the curve sells and forward it to the caller in the same transaction) are never counted as owners: the buy belongs to the wallet that ends up with the tokens. An address counts once per token, for the first actor that claims it.
Verdict rules
- RED: hidden control reached at least 20% of the supply at its peak (all hidden actors together), or hidden actors extracted at least 5 ETH.
- YELLOW: not red, and one hidden actor peaked at 5% or more, or extracted at least 1 ETH. A dev facade adds to yellow only next to another hidden actor.
- GREEN: none of the above.
- EXITED: a red or yellow token whose hidden actors now hold less than 0.5% of the supply and sold nothing in the last hour. The verdict stays, because it is based on the peak; the label says there is nothing left to sell.
- Percentages are of the minted supply, so burns do not inflate them. Reports show both the peak and the share held now.
Extracted and selling now
- Extracted is what hidden actors received when they sold. Selling now is what they received in the last hour (and the last 10 minutes).
- ETH pairs are shown in ETH. USDG pairs show USDG and its ETH equivalent at the ETH/USDG price of that hour, from the deepest Uniswap v4 ETH/USDG pool.
- Tokenized-stock pairs (GLD, META…) are priced through that stock's deepest Uniswap v4 pool against USDG or ETH, hour by hour. If there is no such pool, the report shows the amount in the real asset and “no ETH price”, never a made-up zero; the ETH rules above cannot apply then.
- Every conversion is an estimate and is marked with ≈.
Known limitations
- No transaction traces yet: native-ETH moves inside contracts (fees to a hook or the creator, bridge exits, consolidation of proceeds) are not followed. Extracted counts what hidden actors received from sales, not where it went next.
- Data can lag a few minutes; each page says when it was last updated. A token analyzed for the first time takes 1–4 minutes.
- Buys per hour come from DexScreener and count transactions, not unique buyers.
- “Creator” is named only when on-chain data proves the link: the creator sent the launch transaction, made the vault deposit or set the tax exemption. Otherwise a report says “one wallet”.